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WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time: 2022-10-01T16:35Z

Model Inputs:
2022-10-01T12:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=61.0, Lat.=5.0, Speed=826.0, HalfAngle=14.0, Time21.5=2022-10-01T16:41Z
2022-10-01T13:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=28.0, Lat.=5.0, Speed=671.0, HalfAngle=40.0, Time21.5=2022-10-01T16:51Z

Model Outputs:
Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-10-04T05:43Z (+- 7 hours) [PE: -1.4 hr]
Duration of disturbance (hr) = 24.5 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.8
Possible Kp index:
(kp)90=4
(kp)135=6
(kp)180=6

Other Location(s) Impact:
Mars with estimated shock arrival time 2022-10-05T20:07Z
STEREO B with estimated shock arrival time 2022-10-04T14:38Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221001_164100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221001_164100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221001_164100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221001_164100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221001_164100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221001_164100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221001_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221001_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221001_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221001_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221001_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221001_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221001_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221001_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221001_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221001_164100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Note :
Only the 2022-10-01T13:09Z CME is expected to arrive at Mars, STEREO B, and Missions near Earth. The 2022-10-01T12:24Z CME, which was modeled with it, is not expected to impact any missions.

Submitted on 2022-10-01T16:38Z by Robert Loper

A Notification with ID 20221001-AL-002 was sent on 2022-10-01T16:47Z
A Notification with ID 20221002-AL-004 was sent on 2022-10-02T13:18Z


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